Introduction

Wildfires are an annual threat to life and property in many countries of the world and especially in the U.S. Some of the biggest fires in the entire world (in terms of fuel or biomass burned) occur in California.

Climate plays an important role in influencing the frequency, intensity, and extent of wildfires. The impact that climate change will have on wildfire is a growing concern – as temperatures rise, droughts will become more frequent and more extreme, creating the conditions favorable for wildfires. But there is more to understanding potential changes in wildfire activity than just understanding how droughts may change. Bradstock (2010) noted that four ‘switches’ need to be activated for wildfire to occur: (1) fuel abundance,¹ (2) fuel dryness, (3) suitable weather conditions for fire spread, and (4) a source of ignition (typically from humans or lightning). Understanding how plausible future climate scenarios might impact the complex dynamics of wildfire activity is an important component of modeling the risk posed by wildfires.