Summary EP Table

For catastrophe peril analyses, the Summary EP table displays expected losses, average annual losses (AAL [EV], standard deviation (SD), and losses for specific points on the probability curve as designated by the administrative user, where:

AAL (EV): The manual annual expected loss ("expected value") that is determined by taking the sum of all expected losses for the simulation and dividing that sum by the number of years of the simulation
SD: The standard deviation from the mean annual expected loss AAL(EV).

The Summary EP table displays losses as annual aggregate losses (AAL)—the total loss across events for each simulated year, or as annual occurrence losses (OCC)—the largest loss for each simulated year. The following table summarizes the return period and definition for each loss exceedance percentage.


Loss Exceedance Percentage (EP)	Return Period (RP)	Definition
5.00%	20 year	Estimated Annual Probability of Exceedance: 5.00% This amount is likely to be equaled or exceeded in one year out of 20 on average, or 5 percent of the time. It is the 95th percentile of the annual loss distribution.
2.00%	50 year	Estimated Annual Probability of Exceedance: 2.00% This amount is likely to be equaled or exceeded in one year out of 50 on average, or 2 percent of the time. It is the 98th percentile of the annual loss distribution.
1.00%	100 year	Estimated Annual Probability of Exceedance: 1.00% This amount is likely to be equaled or exceeded in one year out of 100 on average, or 1 percent of the time. It is the 99th percentile of the annual loss distribution.
0.40%	250 year	Estimated Annual Probability of Exceedance: 0.40% This amount is likely to be equaled or exceeded in one year out of 250 on average, or 0.4 percent of the time. It is the 99.60th percentile of the annual loss distribution.
0.20%	500 year	Estimated Annual Probability of Exceedance: 0.2% This amount is likely to be equaled or exceeded in one year out of 500 on average, or 0.2 percent of the time. It is the 99.80th percentile of the annual loss distribution.
0.10%	1000 year	Estimated Annual Probability of Exceedance: 0.1% This amount is likely to be equaled or exceeded in one year out of 1000 on average, or 0.1 percent of the time. It is the 99.90th percentile of the annual loss distribution.

Tip:

If you ran a Loss Comparative Analysis, the analysis results tables and charts include the comparative results.

Perspectives

Depending on how the analysis was run, you can see the results for all perspectives that were configured in the analysis provided that they returned losses. In the loss results, you select the perspectives that you want to appear in the Summary EP table. Each perspective appears as a row, with separate rows for aggregate (AGG) and occurrence (OCC) losses. When you select View By > Treaty, and then select the Ground Up or Gross perspectives, targets with Treaty losses are labeled Treaty Ground Up and Treaty Gross.

Note:

The No result data generated for perspective: PreLayer Gross message appears even when there may be Pre-Layer Gross results. This is because Touchstone does not currently display the Pre-Layer Gross losses in the Loss Results pane. However, you can use AIR ExportExpress to export the loss results to a CSV file and then view pre-layer gross losses (if there are any); to view the pre-layer gross losses in the report, you must select Event Loss by Layer as one of the reports to generate and Pre-Layer Gross as one of the perspectives. The pre-layer gross losses are in the column labeled PreLayerGrossLoss. You can also run an SQL query to view the results in the PreLayerGrossLoss column in the dbo.tRRRR_LOSS_ByLayer table (contact your database administrator for help with SQL queries).

These are the available loss perspectives:

Ground Up

The total loss generated before the application of financial terms.

If you apply reinsurance, Ground Up will appear as Treaty Ground Up in the Summary EP table. This is the maximum loss to which the treaty can be applied. For CAT XOL this will equal the Net of Pre-CAT loss. For all other types of reinsurance, if the treaties are applied in parallel, this will equal the Gross loss. If the treaties are applied serially, each treaty's Ground Up will equal what remains from the previous treaty.

Retained

The total loss generated after the application of location-level deductibles and of anything not covered by other limits or deductibles at the location or contract level.

Pre-Layer Gross

The total loss generated after the application of location-level limits and deductibles.

Gross

The total loss generated after the application of contract-level limits and deductibles (including layers and sublimits).

If you apply reinsurance, Gross will appear as Treaty Gross in the Summary EP table. This is the loss incurred after the application of reinsurance terms.

Net of Pre-CAT

The total loss generated after the application of all reinsurance treaties except for Catastrophe Excess of Loss (CAT XOL) treaties.

Post-CAT Net

The total loss generated after the application of all reinsurance treaties, including CAT XOL treaties.

EP Type

For each loss analysis, you can view the results by EP type. By default, the system generates and displays a standard mean curve (Standard EP). During every analysis, secondary uncertainty is applied and you can view the EP with secondary uncertainty in the Summary EP table by selecting Secondary EP. This adds another header row to the table so that you see aggregate and occurrence losses (plus their respective perspectives) for that new row. The system also calculates Tail Value at Risk (TVAR) for every analysis and you can add that in order to see TVAR for both the Standard and Secondary EP curves. If you select all three EP types, you see a table similar to the following (with appropriate values filled in).


Standard/TVAR	Agg/Occ	Perspective
STD_EP	AGG	Ground Up
		Gross
		Net of Pre-Cat
	OCC	Ground Up
		Gross
		Net of Pre-Cat
STD_TVAR	AGG	Ground Up
		Gross
		Net of Pre-Cat
	OCC	Ground Up
		Gross
		Net of Pre-Cat
SUNC_EP	AGG	Ground Up
		Gross
		Net of Pre-Cat
	OCC	Ground Up
		Gross
		Net of Pre-Cat
SUNC_TVAR	AGG	Ground Up
		Gross
		Net of Pre-Cat
	OCC	Ground Up
		Gross
		Net of Pre-Cat

If you apply a loss modification factor to the analysis, the table includes an AIR/Mod column. If you choose to view results by peril or model, the table includes a break down by model, peril, or both.

You can switch between displaying by Return Periods and EP Value, and you can edit or add EP points to the table (by clicking the pencil icon and then editing the values in the Edit Summary EP Points dialog box.

Peril and Model

For each loss analysis, you can view results by peril or model if you configure your analysis to include these output options and your data includes peril information. See the "Specifying Additional Details" Help topic for more information.

To view EP summary results by peril, model, or both, click either or both of the Peril and Model buttons in the Peril and Model segment of the ribbon. (By default these buttons are not selected.) The Summary EP table displays results first by peril, then by model.

Note:

Comparative Loss Analysis results and Marginal Impact results are not viewable by peril or model, even if the results sets used in the analysis include this information.

Transpose

Click Switch axes to display data groups in columns instead of rows.

Note:

When you switch axes for the Summary EP table, results for the AAL (EV) and SD perspectives are at the bottom of the table. You can also transpose the results of CAT XOL analyses.

Usage notes

If an analysis was run with reinsurance, you can view the Summary EP table by treaty. To do this, click Treaty in the View By area. This adds a new row to the table so that you can see all applicable perspectives, along with Agg/Occ data and the various EP curve types. This table summarizes the distinctions between portfolio- and treaty-specific terms.


Term	Applicable to	Definition
Ground Up	Portfolio	The total loss without any policy conditions applied
Treaty Ground Up	Treaty	The loss subject to a reinsurance treaty
Gross	Portfolio	The total loss generated after the application of contract-level limits and deductibles (including layers and sublimits)
Treaty Gross	Treaty	The reinsurance loss after the application of all treaty financial terms and conditions

If the analysis was run on Property exposures and results were saved by Coverage and Claims, you can view losses by total coverage or by individual coverage, and you can view the total claim count by clicking Claims. If the analysis was run on Workers' Compensation exposures and results were saved by Claims and Injury Type, you can view losses by total injuries or by individual injury types; click Claims to view the total injury count for the selected injury types.
If you ran a contract loss analysis and selected Pre-Layer Gross as a loss perspective and selected Save Loss By > Layer, you can view the pre-layer gross results by selecting View By > Layer.
You can also view TVaR by coverage.