Hazard projections
This section describes the steps taken to derive the average annual burned area projections for time horizons 2030, 2050, 2075 and 2100 under SSP1, SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5. The projections were used to conditionally sample the U.S. Wildfire 10,000 year catalog.
The model domain fully or partially contains 49 EPA Level 3 ecoregions, defined as areas where ecosystems and environmental resources are similar.1 Statistical models that relate the mean May to October VPD and/or the total precedent-year annual precipitation to annual burned area within each ecoregion were developed using observations from 1984 to 2020. A map of the ecoregions is provided in Appendix A ( Environmental Protection Agency level III ecoregions of the continental United States. Domain of the model is denoted by the thick gray line.).